ATR 和 MA 策略新思路 (New idea for strategy with ATR and MA)

Hallo ,
Yesterday I came up with a trading idea that I want to shear with you all . So if anybody is willing to make it better he is welcome.
So here it goes
We will use ATR 2
MA median price 2
Candle close and we put on a horizontal line to thw poit that the MA cross the candle that has close Lets say EURAUD cross at 1.43842
We check the ATR and it is at 639 pips .
We check the candle closing price and it is at 1.43739 and it is bearish .
So here is the idea
As the ATR is 639 pips we assume that the next day it will follow about the same price ( about 640 pips)
We check how much is the distance between the candle close and the horizontal line and it is 130 pips . So we can bet short targeting the rest of the 640/2=320pips. So our target will be about 320-130=190 pips .
Now many of you will ask why short …… because the closed candle is bearish and the direction of the MA is bearish too.
So any ideas to make it better?